It was 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
